The doom sayers have been saying that now since 1914. No doubt that is true. It will end some year. No one on this Earth knows when, so just enjoy what little time that you have left.

My shtick is "DEPRESSION IS COMING!!". I think I am closer to the truth.

Depression News

The best definition of a financial depression is a period when supply overwhelms demand, resulting in falling prices, unemployment problems, and economic contraction.

Investopedia explains 'Great Depression'

The NYSE crashed on October 24, 1929, a day known as Black Thursday. Thousands of people lost nearly the entire value of their investments, leaving them with next to nothing. The trend continued and the following Tuesday, Black Tuesday, the DJIA dropped 12%, marking the start of the great depression. International trade declined, along with personal income, tax revenues and product prices.

Many economists believed the Great Depression was evidence that capitalism, when left unchecked, is a dangerous ideology.

This caused some nations to change their political structures, such as Germany, who adopted fascism.

Read more:


Indications of a depression will be a 12% drop in the stock market combined with a high rate of inflation. People will be purchasing gold as a hedge against the inflation, so watch the price of gold closely.


"Depression is coming". Half of Europe is mired in a recession with 20+% unemployment and 30+% poverty but keeps limping along from one financial crisis to the next.

The United States is so far in debt that it could not handle a recession, not alone a depression, but again keeps limping along from one financial crisis to the next.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

The High Price of Gold

Items concerning the economy noted this past week.

Home foreclosures at highest level since recession started.

Number of new applicants for unemployment rose.

Unemployment rate not dropping.

More people looking for work.

Credit unions are struggling to stay solvent.  This from restructuring, writing down, or writing off home and consumer loans.

The government is arranging a large financial bailout for credit unions

The US economy is struggling.

The US government seems to have no idea about how to put any direction into the economy.

US debt growing at an alarming rate.

US dollar still dropping against all major currencies.

Gold hit $1,300 an ounce.

Central banks still buying gold even at $1,300 an ounce.

I saw an article from one analyst stating that the price of gold hit $850 in the 1980s before going into decline.  That if that figure was adjusted for inflation, the price of gold would have to hit $3,000 an ounce to be equivalent.  One pundit even suggested that gold will hit $7,000 an ounce.

One thing is obvious.  The price of gold will not be moderating anytime soon.

Crops in Russia and China this past summer were damaged by floods and drought. 

Farmers in America had a good year, but one third of all corn is now being used for ethanol.  Indicating no moderation of prices in the supermarket.

Consumers have reduced debt by one third over the past two years.  They are using debit cards rather than pay the high interest rates.  This will cause the failure of more banks.  Loss of jobs, and more consolidation in the financial industry.  The economy will not be recovering before spring of 2011.

Most people think that the high price of gold is caused by investors and speculators.  Nothing could be farther from the truth.  The high price of gold is being caused by the central banks, dumping their dollars prior to a major devaluation.

By spring of 2011, the price of gold will hit $1,800 an ounce, OR BETTER!

Home Based Employees

It has started.  No more IT Help Desk on Saturdays.  The IT people now have the option of working at home on a company laptop.  I estimate that 40% of the office jobs here in the local area can be done by home based employees.  If direct contact with a product or a customer is not required, then that job can be done by a home based employee.

40% of work being done by home based employees means 40% less office space required.  Also 40% less desks, cabinets, etc. required to be purchased, 40% less office rent, utilities, and upkeep to be paid.  Unfortunately, it also means that 40% fewer engineers, security guards, cleaners, and office support personnel will have to be paid.

What it means to the home based employees is no special office clothes required.  They can work in their pajamas.  It also means no auto required for commuting to work.  No car payment, insurance, gas, or upkeep expenses to be paid.  No outside food expenses either.  And one real biggy, no more childcare expenses.

Over the course of the next 10 - 20 years you will see a large migration of employers to home based employee programs.  It  is not just the office space overhead that the employers will save.  The home based employee will take less wages because he does not have as many expenses.

There are two things which serve as a deterrence to an immediate switch to home based employees.  Bosses and the employees themselves.

Every worker knows the boss who is the attendance taker.  He jumps you if you are a second late reporting to work, or leave a minute early for lunch.  Everybody knows the office ogre.  He exists just to make the lives of his workers miserable.  Every worker knows the micro-manager.  He is always bent over the shoulder of an employee ensuring that the work is being done EXACTLY the way the micro-manager wants.  Absolutely no variation allowed.

Some employees are as bad as their bosses.  Some workers do not have the initiative to even go to the office unless they know that a boss is there checking on them.  Some employees have to be bullied and threatened into doing their work.  Some employees have to have a boss standing over them or they turn out substandard work.  Also some employees have doubts about themselves and require personal encouragement from the boss and coworkers.

The home based employee will be a new breed of worker.  He has to insure that he has all information available with which to do his job.  He must meet all time schedule and suspense dates.  He must ensure that his work is accurate and formatted correctly.  Just as if he was working for himself.  Which, in effect he is.  He is being paid for his results, not for being in the office.

When a company realizes that switching to home based employees will provide it with an edge over its competitors then it will begin a transition into a home based employee program.  Other companies in the same industry will have to make the switch to home based employees to remain competitive.

Don't think it will work?

There are many bright individuals now, champing at the bit, saying, "Let me show you!".

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

No improvement in the United States economy

Items concerning the economy noted this past week.

Housing foreclosures in August rose to the highest level they have been since the current recession started.  Six more banks failed.  With the holidays and winter upcoming, indications are that neither the real estate nor the home construction industry will improve any before spring of 2011.

Gender pay difference.  It was noted that women are now receiving 83% of the pay of a man, up from 76%.  It was noted that there are more men than women looking for work.  What was not noted is that this indicates that employers are jettisoning their higher paid workers.

Consumer price index up in August.  Wage index down.  Indicating that consumers are struggling to make ends meet.

Personal wealth on the decline.  Caused by depreciation in home prices, a stagnant stock market, and interest rates so low that savings don't even come close to keeping up with inflation, even though inflation is low.

Poverty level up to 7% of American households.  The highest level it has been since Lyndon Johnson was in office.

This article should not be construed to be a political statement.  I hate political statements.

Barak Obama ran on a plank of "Change": when he ran for President. 

His supporters must have believed that change was necessary.

After two years, though, the above items indicate that what change that has been made has been unnecessary or completely wrong.

President Barak Obama, if you can read this,